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Analysis of Key Drivers Influencing the Policy-Making Pattern of Religious Tourism in the Metropolis of Mashhad with a Foresight Approach
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Abstract: (10 Views) |
Scientific advancements and the emergence of a new field called foresight have enabled humanity to reinterpret its destiny. Foresight is a science that, by understanding current issues and identifying a desirable future, allows for the adoption of appropriate strategies to move toward that desired future. In essence, foresight, by outlining a clear vision of the future, increasing awareness of ongoing transformations, and enabling timely decision-making, can empower any society or organization to find the best solutions. In the context of the importance of tourism, the absence of a shared vision in this field, and the multiplicity of decision-making and policy-making institutions, identifying and understanding key drivers can contribute to developing a future vision that predicts and illustrates possible and desirable trends in religious tourism, and it also enables policymakers to control future developments and devise effective strategies to achieve a desirable future. Accordingly, thinking about the future and engaging in foresight has become a modern discipline within circles of power and decision-making, gaining increasing attention from decision-making, management, and planning centers over the past century. Based on this, the present study attempts to identify the key drivers of religious tourism policy-making in the metropolis of Mashhad from a foresight perspective in order to develop scenarios aligned with the city’s specific conditions. This applied research utilizes a descriptive-analytical method and employs the cross-impact analysis matrix using MicMac software. The statistical population includes 30 experts, managers, and specialists in the fields of tourism and foresight. The results and the distribution of variables indicate systemic instability under the current conditions. Based on the output of MicMac software, 7 drivers—due to their high direct and indirect influence on the future of religious tourism policy-making in Mashhad—were identified as key factors.
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| Keywords: Policy-making, Religious Tourism, Foresight Approach, Mashhad City, MicMac Software |
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Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Accepted: 2025/04/30 | Published: 2025/04/30
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