fa جایگاه آینده‌پژوهی در تدوین سناریوهای تاب‌آوری ساختار فضایی شهری در برابر زلزله (موردکاوی: کلان‌شهر شیراز) تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span sans-serif="" style="font-family:Calibri,"><span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">تاب‌آوری شهری اصطلاحی است که برای اندازه‌گیری توانایی یک شهر برای بهبود از یک مخاطره به کار می‌رود. تاب‌آوری شهری از ابعاد مختلف قابل بررسی می‌باشد. در این میان توجه به ساختار فضایی شهر دارای اهمیت بسزایی است. چرا که در تعریف شهر باید علاوه بر کالبد شهر، روابط افراد جامعه را هم موردتوجه قرار داد؛ بنابراین در زمان بحران ناشی از مخاطره طبیعی نیز مسأله تاب‌آوری ساختار شهر بسیار مهم می‌باشد. مقاله حاضر ضمن بیان تاب‌آوری شهری به بررسی این مسأله در ساختار شهر شیراز می‌پردازد و تاب‌آوری این کلان‌شهر را در برابر مخاطره زلزله مورد ارزیابی قرار می‌دهد. هدف</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">پژوهش</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">حاضر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">در</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">مرحله</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">اول شناسایی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">پیشران‌های</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">کلیدی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">مؤثر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">بر تاب‌آوری ساختار فضایی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">شهر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">شیراز</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">و بررسی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">چگونگی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">تأثیرگذاری</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">این</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">پیشران‌ها</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">بر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">یکدیگر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">در</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">مرحله دوم</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">رسیدن</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">به</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">سناریوهای</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">مطلوب تاب‌آوری</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">شهری</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">شیراز در</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">آینده</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">می‌باشد.</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">پژوهش</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">حاضر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">به</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">لحاظ</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">هدف،</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">کاربردی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">از لحاظ</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">ماهیت</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">روش</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">بر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">اساس</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">روش‌های</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">جدید</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">علم</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">اکتشافی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">است</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">که</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">با تعیین</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">شاخص‌های کلیدی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">از</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">طریق</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">شناسایی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">پیشران‌های</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">کلیدی</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">با استفاده</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">از</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">نرم‌افزار</span> <span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">MicMac</span></span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">بر</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">پایه</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">روش</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">تحلیل</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">اثرات</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">متقاطع و</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">ارائه</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">سناریوهای</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">مطلوب</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">با</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">استفاده</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">از</span> <span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">ScenarioWizard</span></span> <span b="" mitra="" style="font-family:">&nbsp;انجام گرفته</span> <span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">است.</span><span b="" lang="FA" mitra="" style="font-family:"> نتایج حاصل حاکی از آن است که </span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" mitra="" style="font-family:">در مورد سناریوی منتخب (سناریوی فعال، بستری متناسب با ساختار تاب‌آوری)‌، پیشران‌هایی همچون کیفیت معابر و دسترسی، زیرساخت‌های شهری، دسترسی‌های امدادی، پناهگاه‌های شهری برای اسکان موقت، تراکم ساختمانی، فضای باز شهری و دانه‌بندی شهری در راستای رویکرد تاب‌آوری ساختاری توسعه فضایی کلان‌شهر شیراز باید مدنظر قرار گیرد.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span sans-serif="" style="font-family:Calibri,"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Urban resilience is a term used to measure a city&#39;s ability to recover from a hazard. Urban resilience can be studied from different dimensions. In the meantime, paying attention to the spatial structure of the city is very important. Because in the definition of the city, in addition to the body of the city, the relations of the people of the society must also be considered. Therefore, in times of crisis caused by natural hazards, the issue of resilience of the city structure is very important.</span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span sans-serif="" style="font-family:Calibri,"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">This article, while expressing urban resilience, examines this issue in the structure of Shiraz city and evaluates the resilience of this metropolis against earthquake risk. This research&rsquo;s goal, in the first step is identify key drivers effective on sustainable development in Shiraz and the influence these propellers on each other and in the second step is achieving favorable scenarios for sustainable urban development in Shiraz in the future.</span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span sans-serif="" style="font-family:Calibri,"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">&nbsp;This research, in terms of purpose, is a practical and in terms of nature and method is analytical and exploratory that is done based on new methods of future science research,</span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> which determines</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> key indicators through the Delphi method and identify key drivers using the MicMac Software based on cross-impact analysis method and</span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> Optimal scenarios are presented using the Scenario Wizard</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> Software.</span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span sans-serif="" style="font-family:Calibri,"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">&nbsp;The results indicate that in the case of the selected scenario (active scenario, scenario appropriate to the structure of resilience), drivers such as the Quality of roads and access, urban infrastructure, relief access, urban shelters for temporary housing, building density, urban open space and urban </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">fabric </span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">should be considered in line with the structural resilience approach of spatial development of Shiraz metropolis.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span> <pre style="text-align:justify"> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span courier="" new="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></b></span></span></pre> تاب‌آوری, ساختار فضایی شهر, تاب‌آوری شهری شیراز در برابر زلزله, آینده‌پژوهی, سناریو Resilience, Urban Spatial Structure, Urban Resilience of Shiraz against Earthquake, Future Study, Scenario 7 22 http://ijurm.imo.org.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-2648-3&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Tahereh Nasr طاهره نصر nasr.soha@gmail.com 100319475328460012690 100319475328460012690 Yes Department of Architecture, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. گروه معماری، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران‌